The pair is in hyperventilating mode. Last week we made some nice profits to the downside and after that we filled the gap. Now we are facing the same problem again. The trend is still down but the gap is still open. The indicators are mixed and I can't make cheese of that at the moment. [it's a dutch saying :-)]
The last candle just closed as a doji and the new candle opened right at the tenkan line. For today it is likely we will get a gap fill and see from there. To become really bullish a close above the red kijune line in the 1.4200 area is a must. Until that time the trend remains down. In short: For this moment the best position is no position at all.
July 13, 2011
EURUSD
As mentioned in previous post the trend remained down but watch your back. Well we managed to get the original target and the first extension of it at 1.3860. The warning was not in vain and the mentioning of back testing the trendline and gap fill actually happend today with just 20 pips short of gap fill at the moment of writing. Lots of news going back and forth between the US and Europe. Today the main event was Ben Bernake hinting for QE3 or more easing but talking is not doing yet and Fisher a fed member is totaly against it.Also option experation week has its part in this vloatile market. Big players making sure that in the money options on both sides get killed. Meaning both shorts and longs can't play their quiet daily game. Game over before you know it.
Under these conditions I have only drawn a chart with a few possibilities. Is it just the 61,8% back the market wants or do they want more and go for a test of the cloud. In any case I still feel the euro is going down. QE3 is not a done deal and no problems solved in Europe for now. Be very careful out there for the remainder of the week.
July 11, 2011
EURUSD
Because of big moves today I am cautious for any bounces and only doing a follow up chart of the eurusd. The area marked in blue/gray will be our pivotal area for now after we almost reached our targets. Just 30 pips shy of target mentioned. Notice that the chikou line did not only take out last night mentioned tenkan line but is now also way below the cloud. If we can break below the blue/gray area our first target remains 1.3950 with 1.3860, 1.3750 and 1.3700 as extensions. To the upside we could test back the broken trendline and ultimate ther could be a gap fill in the 1.4250 area. In short the trend is down but whatch your back.
July 10, 2011
EURUSD
We had lots of speculation on a breakout to the upside with targets between 1.5200 and 1.5500. Although this can not be ruled out, for the moment the downside looks more valid. Setting up for an ABCD formation with a target of 1.3950.
The indicators also pointing south and lined up for a test of the up trend line. A break of this uptrend line is a must for more down side. Only a break above the cloud invalidates this short setup. Also keep an eye on the circled area where the chickou line is trying to break the tenkan line.
Mondays are often choppy day's so a bit of a correction after friday's NFP can't be ruled out. (click the image for a larger view)
June 16, 2011
EURUSD
After a heavy sell of the last few days it looks like we are a bit oversold at this point. This could mean some profit taking ahead of the weekend and a corrective push up or sideways action. For the next real move a lot depends on the voting on greece bailout this weekend. My advice would be trade on smaller time frames and expect action in both directions. Also tomorrow is tripple witching hour. Option experation and moves could be wild during that time. Stay away for a day and take a long weekend is the best advice I can give.
May 24, 2011
GBPUSD
I Mentioned yesterday the gap in EURUSD was not filled yet and up it went. Expected more downside in the GBPUSD and at first it looked ok but during the start of Asia everything went in reverse. So where does this leave us now??
Indicators are confused and so am I but I need to stick to the trend and as long as we do not take out previous candle or fly above the cloud again I stick to shorts for the moment. When in doubt stay out but you could also say in this case when in the game don’t leave the game until the final score. Target remains 127,2% and beyond until the cloud changes its mind.
May 23, 2011
GBPUSD
The eurusd has kind of reached all tragets just shy of the 127,2% and with the asian gap still open there will be some tension before another down leg. So The focus for tomorow will be on the gbpusd. Unlike the eurusd that got support from the cloud the GBPUSd has clearly broken the cloud down and reached a new low. Like yesterday pointed out in the eurusd the stochastic is still up but it will turn down after the close of the daily candle at 21:00 GMT. Also we have moved away now of the difficult S/R area indicated by the gray rectangle. The trend is down and our first objective will be the 127,2% area but a target of 161,8% is not a wild fantasy. Unless something weird happens before the NY close we are looking at a nice bearish momentum candle. Further more there is no reason to buy in this area. Happy trading tomorrow.
May 22 2011
EURUSD
We are in the cloud and looking at a bearish momentum candle. The indicators pointing dow with only stochastic still a bit up. But this indicator will turn when a new candle opens again. Tragets are the down trend line, bottom of the cloud and the 127,2 fibo extension. When we can break the cloud and the trendline more downside is to expected but taking one step at the time.
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